Mountain Ascetic - Master

Me too. But I truck stomped him with my A.Shiva team. Glad I was using my best team just to see how much damage I could do to a 30 stamina boss. Then Grisar poked his ugly mug in on the second floor and made me pop all my skills.

Me too on the 1st round. Couldn't do anything except get poisoned and get hit by 312k.

That blows. First floor invade gives you no shot. Taste the mortal poison orbs.

Same. Funny thing is, I had never seen mortal poison orbs before, but I knew what they were immediately. Bad thing is that I've been farming tengu all day and only got two skill ups, and could have used that 30 stamina towards running the super King carnival.

@Bacon do you understand probability? The odds of winning the lottery are infinitesimal, but someone always eventually wins. That's the same reason that doubling your bet after every loss at blackjack doesn't work. Yes the odds that you will lose 16 hands in a row are small, but by then your $5 bet is now $160,000 and there's still a better than 50% chance you'll lose.

The odds of it taking you 15 tries at 40% are low, but you have a large sample size of the total number of players that has ever completed Tengu. He could have gotten it after 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 16, or 17 tries and he still would have posted. I don't know how many players have kept completing the dungeon until he dropped, but let's say we have a sample size of 10,000. 4,000 would get it first time. 2,400 would get it their second attempt. 1,440 would get it their third attempt. And so on until we have 40 getting it after 10 attempts, 24 after 11, 15 after 12, 9 after 13, 5 after 14, 3 after 15, 2 after 16, and then you're left with 4 more that will get it eventually.

With 10,000 players the odds say there will be 62 that take more than 10 runs to get one. Those are exactly the people that will be searching for the dungeon and posting that it's not dropping for them, so you're dealing with a self-selected group of people that were unlucky that you hear about.

Last week I was looking for a mythlits in shrine of spirits. I was sitting with 4 light and 4 dark and before I got my first rainbow from the final battle. That's 0.75% odds by your calculation (actually 1.14% odds that it would take AT LEAST 9 rounds to get a rainbow) instead of the 33% you'd think. Then I played some more and ended up with 6 light, 5 dark and 4 rainbow. Much closer to what you'd expect. If Wukngballa plays 10 more times, he might end up with 4 more Tengu, or even more if he's lucky.

Even with just 1,000 players, the odds are that SOMEONE will take at least 15 tries to get Tengu if the odds are 40%, and that someone is going to be noisy because he had really bad luck. You probably won't hear a peep on drop rate from the 953 people that got it their first 6 runs.

How do you not understand probability? You don't just say, "It's random bro what did you expect?! Shoulda prayed to RNGesus bro :P".

The probability of running it 200 times at 40% and not getting a drop is so ridiculously f*cking low that you wouldn't ever experience that in a thousand lifetimes. That'd be similar to if this guy said, "Hey man, I flipped this coin 200 times and it landed heads every time. I think it might be rigged" to which you just said, "RNGesus works in mysterious ways brah. Tough luck!!". Just to put that into perspective for you, that's a 1 in 23,428,606,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 chance.

And his "theory" isn't "terrible" (Idk why you used that word. He didn't propose a theory. The only statement he made was "I am certain the drop rate is not 40%). And it's not weird for him to think that at all. He said he got one no his 15th try. That's a .03134% chance. Even if he were to get one to finally drop on his 10th try, that would still be a .4031% chance of happening, which is *still* ridiculously low. On top of that, he says that others he knew had a similar experience. So it's not an isolated sample size.

Are you really naive enough to think that every master dungeon has a clean 40% rate? Do you think the little "~" next to the drop rates on dungeon pages is just a cute little squiggly they decided to put there? No. "~" means "approximately". Because they have no idea what the drop rates actually are. All they can go off of is the data they have, and even then it's not important. All they need is the approximation give or take a few percent, because it varies *by a few percent* for everyone anyways.

I doubt the rate is actually 40%. Let's say for example that the drop rate is really 30%, but they just list 40%. If he still got it on his 15th try at 30%, that would be a .20346% chance - which is still low, but not at all improbable. That might happen about every 500 people. So the difference of 40% and 30% is the difference between once every 3200 people and once every 500 people. So it's far more probable that "the drop rate is not 40%" like he said. If you *actually* think that all master drop rates are a strict 40%, you're ignorant. And on the same note, the probability is not "random". -.-

.... Faith in humanity.... why do I have it?

Yes, 1/10 is 10% and 1/15 is 6.67% but Bacon is not talking about just a single run. He's talking about chances of success or failure over multiple runs (with success meaning an egg was dropped obviously).

Specifically, Bacon is talking about the chances of only get 1 drop every 15 runs.

Lets just assume the drop rate is a flat 40% or .40 in decimal. This means the chances of it not dropping is 60% or .60 each run.

The chance of it not dropping 14 times in row but dropping on the 15th is :

(Chance of failure)^(Number of failures) * (Chance of success)

Using that equation and our numbers from earlier, we get:

.6^14 * .4
which ends up being .0003134 or .03134% like Bacon worked out.

Using the above equation again but with 30% being the drop rate is :

.7^14 * .3
which ends up being .002034 or .2034%, which again proves his math checks out.

Again to reiterate, it is extremely unreasonable that it took OP 15th runs to get one drop IF the drop rate was actually 40%.

i also have bad luck :(

It's like trying to get a Sonia at a godfest

The drop rate might be random, but running this dungeon 15 times and not getting a drop almost guarantees that the drop rate isn't 40%. You can find the odds of this happening using the geometric distribution (1-p)^(k-1)*p. The chances of getting a tengu for the first time on your 15th run is (1-0.4)^(k-1)*0.4 0.00031. To give this number a frame of reference, a p-value bellow 0.05 is all you need to reject the null.

That's a terrible theory. The chance is random. you could run it 200 times and you'd never be guaranteed to get it. Tough luck.

I ran it only three times and I got it twice. ^.^

It's nice to see a few people that understand statistics. :)

You're really lucky, I ran 4 times in different time with no drop at all

Btw, this is my team to beat this dungeon (Shinra/God Team) :

- Leader : Venomous Copperhead Max Lvl
- Shinra Soul Beast Sai Max Lvl Fully awoken
- Shinra God Demon Ark Lvl 82 Fully awoken
- Shinra Ryuga Lvl.92 Fully awoken
- High Dark Ninja Lvl 91, Fully awoken OR other GOD type monster
- Friend Leader : Muse Lvl.41 (not the final evo one because the cost will exceed)

HP : around 18k (Muse doubled your God type attack and HP)
Copperhead is useful for poison mist and leader skill (2x attack when 3+ combos)

F1 : This is the second hardest part, focus on Ogre first then swipe others, kill fast and watch over you HP, make 3+ combos to double attack
F2 : Easy, you just need to make 3+ combos and swipe them all, use poison mist if necessary to kill Mewdra cat
F3 : Easy too, 3+ combos and swipe them all
F4 : This is a bit rough, I use Shinra skill to wipe them at once
F5 : This is the hardest for me, make 3+ combo until Tengu's HP is around halved, spike with Shinra Skill and Morning Star before activate Tengu's last skill (What lives must die)

EDIT : On fifth try, I got Tengu dropped!! so happy lol...

They had bad luck along with you also when u enter these 40% dungeons there's a theory that if the dungeon takes a while to load most likely the monster wont drop so dont waist a stone.

You made several good points but I'm not sure how you got to some of your math. 1 drop in 15 means a 6.6667% chance and one in ten is 10% chance unless I'm missing something about the dungeon.

Okay, here I go:
Phoenix, Gigas, IS Ogre and Echidna are crucial to this dungeon. They all have useful board changing, etc. actives.You have a lot of really good monsters :D
I would suggest using the build at the bottom. You have all the monsters except Tyrannos (which is definitely farmable with your monsters) and you just need a Tyrannos friend.

I remember posting my build but it got deleted. However, I did get past tengu master with double Asuka leaders. My subs were Rei, King Flammie, a red balanced knight for stage 4, and Kaworu. I got past it with danger but you just gotta kill the monsters in the right order.

1st stage: kill ninja first, then goblin
2nd: Hama, then Neneko before he can bind.
3rd: Ninjas are the easiest. Rei if you have to.
4th: obvious. use knight then sweep
boss: have to use flammie if his HP is below 40%.

I just tried it twice and wiped without getting to the Ninja Stage. I couldn't do enough damage to kill the samurai goblin or ogre quickly or to heal back up. I ran Asuka / Big Flamie / Ice Samurai Ogre / Rei / Mei / Asuka and a couple of other options and still died.

Dunno what I'm doing wrong but they are all 40+ level

Maybe, who is your leader?

Deleted

I got u. Hold up

R u sure? The person coming up is level 2

@uber - mind adding me? I need a batman friend for these cost limited dungeons... 365,287,289