Ancestral Blue Dragon Caller, Sonia
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16 By Juggler#68365 5 years ago ( 8.4.1 ) Let us all have a moment of silence for our brother Beyzul, for he got sent to the bottomless abyss of the friendzone. 8 By Greg!#39904 4 years ago ( 8.4.1 ) !!!PSA!!! DON'T EVOLVE UNTIL THE DRAGON PLANTS SKILLS ROTATE BACK TO THE SONIA'S!! Currently (January 29, 2016) it isn't on the right rotation. Wait for the correct rotation, AND x2 or x2.5 Skill Up Chance during events!! (posting in both Blonia's and Gronia's Ultimate pages) 4 That's not how probability works. The chance of getting a skillup from evoing her is .75*.75*.75=~.422 1.422=.578*100=57.8% 1 One skill up: (0.75 x 0.75 x 0.25) x 3 (there are three different scenarios where one out of the three give a skillup) = 0.421875 = 42.1875% Two skill ups: (0.75 x 0.25 x 0.25) x 3 (there are three different scenarios where two out of the three give skillups) = 0.140625 = 14.0625% Three skill ups: (0.25x 0.25 x 0.25) x 1 (only one scenario where you get three skillups) = 0.015625 = 1.5625% 42.1875 + 14.0625 + 1.5625 = 57.8125% of getting at least one skill up. Don't go around insulting others without bothering to do the math yourself. Last edited by Reverb 4 years ago ( 8.6.2 ) 0 Ea#30342 4 years ago ( 8.4.1 ) This is a powerful card, why would you wait just to have a tiny chance that one of your 3 evo mats might give you a skill level? My damage output is insane with only six rows, I recommend that everyone evo this ASAP 0 I didn't insult anyone. Now here is your Math: One skill up: 0.421875 Two skill ups: 0.140625 * 2 Three skill ups: 0.015625 * 3 0.421875 + (0.140625*2) + (0.015625 * 3) = 0.75. 0.75 Is your expected value. The expected value is also known as the expectation, mathematical expectation, EV, average, mean value, mean, or first moment. More practically, the expected value of a discrete random variable is the probabilityweighted average of all possible values. The probability of getting at least one skill up is relatively meaningless when it comes to Puzzles and Dragons. Furthermore, I think anyone that has ever tried to fuse 4 skill up materials during 2.5x without getting a skill up KNOWS that 4 * 25% does not equal a 100% chance of getting a skill up. What matters is the expected value. 0 That doesn't make any sense though. 58% doesn't make it sound worse than it is. 58% IS the probability of getting a skillup. No one who has had any experience in skilling up things would ever go into feeding four things expecting a 75% probability of getting a skill up. There is fluctuation between skill up results but lets be honest, it's much more likely to get 0 out of 5 than it is to get 4 out of 5. It's not that 58% makes it sound worse than it is, it's that 75% makes it sound BETTER than it is. 0 Because your 58% chance of getting a skill up is misleading. To put it another way, Very many pages on this site are scattered with the average number of skillups you'll need to skill something up  This'll take 40 scarlets, etc. The expected value is used all over the place, with the implicit understanding that it might take you less if you're lucky, or it might take you more if you're lucky. 58% makes it sound worse than it is, because just as we have all fed 4 dudes and not gotten a single skill up, we've also gotten those cases where we feed 5 and get 4 skill ups. 1 Cheefoo#71433 4 years ago ( 8.6.2 ) Recent rotation made fruits into Norn skillups again. Sonia skillups are on certain PreDras now. I'd say suck it up and lose out on the three fruits worth of skillup chance. Unless of course you aren't weren't even going to use her anyway. In which case sure, whatever, miss out on all the chances of using her in the upcoming months for the scant hope of a skillup later on. You'd probably go 0/3 anyway. 1 Greg!#39904 4 years ago ( 8.6.2 ) Stop fighting boys, we have great news coming. Finally after two months of waiting, the Dragon Fruits are rotating back to the Sonia SkillUps NEXT SUNDAY, APRIL 4, 2016. Not only that, but it'll be at a 3x SkillUp rate!! This is great news for players with Sonias who aren't max skilled (like me lol) 2 Who cares about the expected value? The expected value for feeding four and getting a skill up is 100%, but you yourself said that that's obviously not true. The actual probability is way more useful than the expected value because it actually gives an accurate, realistic, and reliable representation of the probability of getting a skill up. 3 I know how probability works, I was expecting to have to write a post about this. Your expected value from 3 fruits is .75. That is your average. Go ahead and add up the values from your odds of getting 2 skill ups or 3 skill ups. That is the number you should be thinking of when you consider the value of a fruit and whether you should care about a fruit or not. Now go back to stats class. 4 .75 expected value of a skill. If you already have yours max skilled, like I do, go ahead. Otherwise, I recommend waiting. On average it will cost 450 stamina to get the 3 fruits you'd be throwing away. I apologize for initially dumbing this down by typing 75% chance instead of .75 expected value. Last edited by Eric 4 years ago ( 8.6.2 ) 4 By Incognito#53364 5 years ago ( 8.4.1 ) #2567 Gsonia..................... Ballance (Bow) #2566 Bsonia..................... Phsyical (Axe) #1793 Rsonia..................... Devil (Sword) #2287 Paradise Gsonia...... Attack (twoheaded axe) #2512 Holy Night Rsonia.... Devil (sparkles and sweets) #2406 Old Castle Bsonia.... Physical (dancing skills and candy) #1759 Sonia Gran.............. Dragon (gold egg) This was supposed to be me listing the weapons each sonia uses... guess only the main three and the paradise Sonia actually use weapons so yeah I was bored, the end. 0 StaticG#55158 5 years ago ( 8.4.1 ) Little do you know that Old Castle Bsonia is secretly getting ready to swing the blue dragon like a weapon. That is why he appears to be sweating. It should be: #2406 Old Castle BSonia.... Physical (Dragon) I'm also certain that Holy Night RSonia has the same tendencies as the above and possibly Gran. Holy Night RSonia looks like she is trying to throw strawberry dragon, and Gran would be fine with throwing Draggie. He already looks like he has been catapulted towards you. Last edited by StaticG 5 years ago ( 8.4.1 ) 1 Mtw FTW#63539 4 years ago ( 8.4.1 ) I might be blind or something, but are you sure bsonia is holding an axe? I think she's holding a scythe. 2 By Furrpelt#62115 5 years ago ( 8.4.1 ) Blue Sonia beats Arena: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0yFx_0_NAk 0 DevilDog#72800 4 years ago ( 8.4.1 ) It would certainly be nice to have so much spare money that I could just buy stones and roll on godfests until I had 3 Blonia and a BlOdin. Not to mention the stones for stamina to level them up... Not gonna happen. He's pretty talented though. 1 By Mtw FTW#63539 5 years ago ( 8.4.1 ) How much longer do I have to wait before it is released to america? 0 By Andy#51335 5 years ago ( 8.4.1 ) Finally! All hail Poles Apart with Blue Dragon Call with Disabilities, Sonia! *Slow clap* 1 By urtoast(F)#4427 5 years ago ( 8.4.1 ) Her armor looks so Kazuki Takahashilike (yugioh creator/artist). 1 By Bob Jones#82152 5 years ago ( 8.4.1 ) How long do new cards usually take to get to NA? Also, the google translate says "Poles apart of Blue Dragon, Sonia" wot? never trust goggle. 1 Blu#74327 5 years ago ( 8.4.1 ) New cards often come to NA in around 80 days, probably a bit longer. Here's a page listing the difference in release days: https://setsupad.wordpress.com/jpnaupdatetracker/ 1 By Popstick#77405 4 years ago ( 8.4.1 ) I rolled blue odin right after this card came out... welp, time to make a blue/dark phys team 2 By Greg!#39904 5 years ago ( 8.4.1 ) Is it really 5 connected Water orbs? Or is it just a typo? I assumed it was 5 or more Water orbs, cause that'll be really disappointing. 1 Den#79806 5 years ago ( 8.4.1 ) My understanding is All the leader skills with a X+ connected orbs use "clearing X connected orbs" All of the leader skills that require specific matched orb counts (Sumire for example) use "when matching exactly X connected orbs" So this is 5+ orbs. Last edited by Den 5 years ago ( 8.4.1 ) 
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